Can money buy EU love?
Published in European Journal of Political Economy (60), 2019
Co-authored with Jan Fidrmuc and Çiğdem Börke Tunali
Abstract
We explore the role played by Cohesion Policy in the Brexit referendum and the subsequent 2017 general election. Although the UK has been a net contributor to the EU, some regions receive significant amounts of regional aid funds. We find that while Cohesion Policy is positively correlated with the remain vote, this relationship is weak. Most of the variation in the remain vote is explained by economic factors. In contrast, there is a robust negative correlation between Cohesion Policy and voter turnout. We estimate that had there not been this negative relationship, some 2 million more voters would have participated in the referendum, which is more than the winning margin between the remain and leave votes. Our analysis of the 2017 election suggests that Conservatives lost and Labour gained votes in the regions that benefited from Cohesion Policy, while remain-supporting regions showed gains for the Liberal Democrats.
Motivation
- One of the benefits of EU membership for the UK regions were the European Structural and Investment Funds (Cohesion Policy payments; EU Funds).
- Benefitting from the EU Funds can shape attitudes towards the EU.
Research question
- What is the impact of the EU Structural and Investment Funds on the outcome of the Brexit referendum in 2016 and the subsequent 2017 elections?
Contribution
- Shedding light into whether benefiting from EU regional policy shapes electoral outcomes regions, especially regarding EU related question.
Empirical strategy
- Estimating the correlation between the EU Funds and election outcomes of the 2016 Brexit referendum and the 2017 parliamentary elections for NUTS2 and NUTS3 regions of the UK.
- Dependent variables: remain votes and voter turnout in the 2016 Brexit referendum (in %), results for the major parties (Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, UKIP) in the 2017 parliamentary elections.
- Variable of interest: EU Funds per capita in 2007-2013.
- Control variables: 2014 regional GDP per capita, 2014 average hourly wage, 2014 employment rate, 2013/2003 migrant growth.
- Method: OLS.
Results
- Positive correlation between the remain votes and the Cohesion Policy payments on the NUTS3 level.
- Negative correlation between the EU Funds and the turnout in the 2016 referendum on the NUTS3 level.
- Positive correlation between the EU Funds and the votes for the Labour party in the 2017 elections.
- Negative correlation between the EU Funds and the votes for the Conservative party in the 2017 elections.